Price cycles through four phases
• Accumulation (bottom box) → markup → distribution (top box) → markdown — big players gather shares in the box and hand them off in the box
• A long sideways box is not 'no direction' but a preparation zone where shares change hands
Connection to our data
• MarketSurfer's accumulation/distribution zone alerts are automatic detections of this box on daily timeframes and above
• Directional hit rates after firing are published as they are, with sample sizes, in the weekly verification report every Sunday
Where people slip
• They feel sure of the direction in advance while still inside the box — a box stays neutral until a breakout is confirmed
The box is seen as a preparation zone, not as boredom. There is one thing to confirm: which way it breaks out, with volume.
On a stock that moved sideways for a long time recently, did you confirm the breakout direction before entering, or bet in advance while it was still inside the box?