What a gap really is
• A gap is a price range skipped with almost no trading — a price zone where the market has not yet reached agreement
• A CME gap is an artificial hole: Bitcoin trades 24 hours, but the futures market is closed on weekends
Why they are often filled
• The market tends to revisit a range that saw no trading to test 'is there anyone to buy and sell here'
• That is why about 80% of CME gaps eventually get filled — but when is not fixed
Where people slip
• They mistake 'it gets filled 80% of the time' for an entry signal — the timing of the fill is uncertain, so it is not grounds for a directional bet
• A gap is only a marker of an 'unverified price zone'; it is not a trade signal in itself
A gap is only a map pointing to an 'unverified zone'. Betting against the trend on the fill alone is where it goes wrong.
Is there an unfilled CME gap on BTC right now, and do you see it as an 'unverified zone' rather than a 'signal'?