What a trendline really is
• A trendline makes the slope of supply and demand visible
• A rising trendline holding means that, each time, someone appears to buy at a higher price (demand beats supply)
What a break means
• The essence of a trendline break is a signal that the demand (or supply) that held up that slope has stopped
• It should be judged on the close — a wick that only slightly crosses is noise, not a change of strength
Where people slip
• They contort lines to 'make them fit' — a line is an approximation of behavior, not a magic line
• A line drawn from 2 points is trusted at the 3rd touch because it only means something if it reflects repeated behavior, not coincidence
A trendline is not a wall that confines price; it is a tool for seeing 'who is winning, demand or supply'.
When you see a trendline break, do you see only that 'the line was crossed', or that 'the demand holding it up has stopped'?