MarketSurfer records every published analysis at publication time and automatically checks it against actual market results after a set period. The principle: content that cannot be verified is not published. 38 tracks are verified continuously; the methodology of six representative ones is introduced below.
🧾 All scoring results
We do not cherry-pick what passed the gate — every bucket is listed as-is . A bucket with few samples means it cannot be judged yet, and underperforming buckets are not hidden either.
| Bucket | Samples | Hit rate | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| spotlight 방향 적중 · 1일 | 592 | 46.1% | Below the bar |
| spotlight 방향 적중 · 3일 | 631 | 44.5% | Below the bar |
| spotlight 방향 적중 · 1주 | 1,191 | 47.4% | Below the bar |
| spotlight 방향 적중 · 1개월 | 823 | 50.8% | Below the bar |
| Fear/greed extreme signals 7일 방향 적중 | 34 | 55.9% | Meets the bar |
| Funding-rate spikes 24시간 스퀴즈 발생률 | 34 | 70.6% | Meets the bar |
| 도미넌스 판정 7일 상대 성과 적중 | 16 | 31.2% | Not enough samples (20 needed) |
| trend reversal 1차 진행 도달률 | 8,863 | 59.1% | Meets the bar |
| Squeeze radar 평가 적중 | 105 | 30.5% | Below the bar |
| Smart-money divergence 평가 적중 | 2,028 | 48.7% | Below the bar |
| Smart-money positioning 평가 적중 | 47 | 51.1% | Below the bar |
| 역사적 기록 평가 적중 | 70 | 37.1% | Below the bar |
| ETF flows 평가 적중 | 27 | 33.3% | Below the bar |
| Stablecoin liquidity 평가 적중 | 3 | 33.3% | Not enough samples (20 needed) |
| 매크로 1h 반응 평가 적중 | 2 | 100% | Not enough samples (20 needed) |
| CVD 다이버전스 평가 적중 | 1,235 | 47% | Below the bar |
| 매집/분산 평가 적중 | 376 | 49.7% | Below the bar |
※ These are directional hit rates, not returns. Buckets under 20 samples cannot speak statistically — we leave them written as they are.
Verifies the validity of the daily up/down dominance spotlight TOP 5 selections.
Verifies the contrarian-signal hypothesis when the fear-greed index enters an extreme zone.
Verifies whether sharp futures funding-rate moves lead to short-term squeezes (sharp reversals).
Verifies the persistence of the first-hour reaction after macro releases such as FOMC, CPI, and NFP.
Verifies whether top foreign and institutional net-buy names actually beat the market.
Verifies the reliability of statistical-model daily price forecast bands for BTC and ETH.
The six above are representative examples — in fact every track below is recorded at publication and scored automatically after its set period. We publish the scoring criteria first to keep ourselves from changing the criteria after the results are in.
A single track is scored at multiple horizons, each on its own — being right after one day and wrong on the weekly horizon really happens, and a record must keep that too. Tracks that only look at one horizon yet list just that one. When horizons are added, this table changes first.
| Track | Recorded | Scoring criterion | Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spotlight TOP 5 | Symbol, direction, score, and price at publication | Direction match after 7 days, plus score-return rank correlation | 1d · 3d · weekly · monthly |
| Watch-level proximity picks | Symbol, level, and direction at the proximity alert | Target reached vs invalidated, bracketed after 7 days | 1d · 3d · weekly · monthly |
| Trend change follow-through | Symbol, bar, and direction at the close-confirmed flip | Stage 1/2 progress reached per bar (1D–1M) | 5d |
| Accumulation/distribution ranges | Symbol, direction, and box top/bottom at detection | Whether the breakout direction matched the call after 7 days | 1d · 3d · weekly · monthly |
| Weekly volatility watch candidates | Symbol and both-direction trigger prices at selection | Whether a trigger fired within 7 days | 7d |
| Names to avoid | Symbol and reason when judged unsuitable | Whether entering really was unsuitable after 7 days | 7d |
| Morning market briefing | Tracked symbols and watch entry prices | Entry price reached within 7 days, and the direction after | 7d |
| Track | Recorded | Scoring criterion | Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Funding-rate spikes | Symbol, funding rate, and price at extreme-funding detection | Whether an opposite-direction squeeze occurred within 24 hours | 1d · 3d · weekly |
| Squeeze radar | Symbol and crowded side at detection | Whether liquidation pressure materialized on the opposite side | 1d |
| Executed-flow vs price divergence | Symbol and direction at divergence detection | Whether price followed the executed flow after 7 days | 1d · 3d · weekly |
| Smart-money divergence | When top-trader positioning diverged from price | Whether price then converged toward the positioning | 7d |
| Smart-money positioning | Timing and size of sharp top-trader position changes | Whether the change direction matched the price direction after | 7d |
| Whale trades | Symbol, size, and side at large-trade detection | Whether short-term price direction matched afterward | 1d |
| Liquidation cascades | Size of the liquidation burst and its multiple of normal | Whether a reversal followed the liquidations | 1d |
| ETF flows | Daily net inflow/outflow size | Whether flow direction matched the price direction after | 7d |
| Stablecoin liquidity | Change in stablecoin market cap | Whether liquidity direction matched the market direction | 7d |
| Stablecoin depegs | When the gap from $1 widened, and by how much | Time to re-peg and whether market stress accompanied it | 1d |
| Crypto sector rotation | Per-sector share of trading value and its change (%p) | Subsequent relative performance of sectors money flowed into | 1d · 3d · weekly |
| Track | Recorded | Scoring criterion | Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fear/greed extremes | When an extreme zone was entered, and the BTC price then | Whether BTC direction matched the hypothesis after 7 days | 1d · 3d · weekly |
| BTC dominance calls | Dominance direction call and reading at the time | Whether dominance moved as called | 1d · 3d · weekly |
| Alt trading regime | The 5-level verdict (very good to very bad) and its inputs | Consistency between the verdict and actual altcoin performance after 7 days | 7d |
| BTC scenario tree | Up, down, and range scenarios with their condition prices | Whether the scenario that played out matched after 7 days | 7d |
| Macro release 1h reactions | Reaction direction and size one hour after the release | Direction persistence after 24 hours, plus size-persistence correlation | 1d · 3d · weekly |
| Macro calendar accuracy | The announced schedule and time | Checked against the actual release schedule within 30 days | 30d |
| FOMC reports | The reading published right after the announcement | Consistency between the reading and the next day’s market reaction | 1d |
| Decoupling alarm | Pair and correlation coefficient at the decoupling detection | Correlation restored vs still decoupled after 7 days | 7d |
| Volatility watch | Symbol and degree of contraction at detection | Whether volatility actually expanded within 7 days | 7d |
| Weekend market digest | The weekend verdict and prices at the time | Whether direction matched after the week opened | 1d · 3d · weekly |
| Forecast bands | Daily forecast band upper/lower values at generation | Whether the actual price landed inside the band after 24 hours | 1d |
| Track | Recorded | Scoring criterion | Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI foreign/institutional flows | Foreign net-buy TOP 5 after the close | Excess performance versus KOSPI the next day | 1d · 3d · weekly |
| Short-selling surges | Symbol and short ratio when the surge was detected | Whether the ratio turned down afterward, and the price direction | 7d |
| Equity accumulation/distribution | Symbol and direction at equity-box detection | Whether the breakout direction matched after 7 days | 7d |
| Earnings results | Pre-release estimates and post-release actuals | Whether the surprise direction matched the next day’s price direction | 1d |
| Equity sector rotation | Per-sector 7-day and 30-day returns with inflection classification | Whether sector performance turned as classified | 30d |
| Track | Recorded | Scoring criterion | Horizons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historic record alerts | When records such as new highs/lows were set | Whether short-term direction persisted after the record | 7d |
| Breaking announcements | Symbol and content when the news broke | Price reaction direction after the news | 1d |
| Free watchlist teaser | The disclosed symbol and direction | Direction hit or miss after 7 days | 7d |
| AI narrative factuality | Numbers quoted in AI-generated sentences | Checked against the data actually provided (fabrication detection) | at publication |
※ Per-track hit rates and sample counts are published once enough samples accumulate. Early numbers on few samples are driven by chance, so no performance figures are shown here.
Verification statistics are published on this page only after sufficient samples and statistical significance are secured. Early numbers on few samples are easily driven by chance, and publishing them can itself mislead. Figures will be published track by track as verification completes.
The verified content above is published automatically every day on the Telegram channel.
Start free⚠️ 면책 고지
본 콘텐츠는 정보 제공 및 매매 참고 목적으로 작성되었으며, 특정 금융투자상품의 매수 또는 매도를 권유하지 않습니다. 본 서비스는 자본시장법상 투자자문업이 아닙니다. 암호화폐 및 레버리지 거래는 원금을 초과하는 손실이 발생할 수 있으며, 투자 원금의 전액 손실 가능성이 있습니다. 과거 수익률이 미래 수익을 보장하지 않습니다. 모든 투자 판단과 그에 따른 손익의 책임은 전적으로 이용자 본인에게 있습니다. 본인의 투자 성향과 리스크 허용 범위를 반드시 확인한 후 거래하시기 바랍니다.